Winter Storm Watch issued; forecast remains hideously complicated

After yesterday's surprisingly ugly winter storm, it's no wonder that the forecasters are skittish about making detailed forecasts for our next weathermaker arriving Tuesday afternoon.

As we've seen earlier this season, when a storm is overhyped, it tends to be a dud. And when a storm is treated as a non-event, it turns into a big event.

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a Winter Storm Watch for tomorrow's storm, but there is quite a bit of hedging involved. The watch advises:

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE FROM AROUND MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST TO NEAR GREENVILLE MISSOURI. THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION TO MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE A CONCERN...AS WILL THE CONCERN FOR ICE ON TREES AND POWER LINES.

They do try to dial back the hype though:

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL VS. FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. THAT IS THE REASON FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

The current computer models show that the low pressure system will follow a favorable track (to our south) to bring wintry precipitation to Southeast Missouri.

Cape Girardeau, though, seems to lie in a kind of no man's land between the heavy snow (Perry County and northward) and the heavier freezing rain (just to the south). We may see a lot of sleet, holding down total snow accumulations. But sleet is better than freezing rain.

Of course even the slightest change in the track could dramtically change the outcome... as usual. One bright side (if you don't like winter weather) is that the system is currently projected to pass through quickly, with a dry slot putting an end to the precipitation in a hurry.

But if you don't like winter weather, you aren't going to enjoy the forecast for the weekend: Another winter storm is on the horizon for Friday night into Saturday. Right now this appears to be a snowmaker, with perhaps a few inches of accumulation possible. But this outlook could will change many times over before then.