A new F-word to worry about: "Frigid"

While the dreaded phrase "freezing rain" doesn't appear in the forecast, our next winter storm still has the potential to be a real monster.

First, we're in line for another major snowfall, with the computer models suggesting at least a few inches of snow Saturday night into Sunday, and possibly more.

Then it's going to be frigid, with temperatures next week forecast to drop to levels not seen in decades.

Oh, and then there's another chance of snow on the horizon for the middle of next week.

The upcoming Arctic blast has lead to some strongly-worded bulletins from the National Weather Service today:

"ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF AN INSANE MAGNITUDE"

"THIS IS PACKING THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT"

"THIS ONE WILL BRING BRUTAL ARCTIC COLD NOT FELT HERE FOR YEARS."

First, the snow

The computer models are suggesting a very favorable setup for a big snow over the weekend. Low pressure is expected to pass through southern Arkansas, a nearly ideal track for bringing snow to Southeast Missouri.

This afternoon's forecast discussion from Paducah states, "EXCELLENT THERMO-DYNAMICS EXIST FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW OR EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS WITHIN A 6 TO 9 HOUR TIME FRAME FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY."

The GFS computer model is painting 6+ inch totals for Cape Girardeau, with a large band of 8+ inch totals to the north.

Current forecasts from the NWS Weather Prediction Center are somewhat more conservative, but still show that we have a 40% chance of seeing 4 inches or more...

...and a 10% chance for 8 inches:

Then, the cold

After a fairly warm day Saturday before the snow arrives (high 40°F), we're expected to drop below freezing overnight and then remain below freezing through Thursday. The high temperature on Monday is currently forecast to remain in the single digits at Cape Girardeau, falling to -2 overnight.

The Arctic blast will bring sub-zero temperatures to a large chunk of the country.

The bitterly cold temperatures will hamper efforts to clear snow from the roads. As temperatures drop, salt becomes less and less effective at melting snow.

And then more snow?

Although temperatures will moderate somewhat later in the week, the next system could bring more snow or wintry mix. Long-range projections show over one quarter inch of liquid equivalent precipitation for Wednesday and Thursday, which would be enough for at least a couple inches of snow (if it remains cold enough).

The forecast

Here's the official forecast from the NWS for Cape Girardeau in all its frigid glory. I fully expect that we'll reach BREADCON 4 in the coming days.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

SUNDAY: SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 3. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.

MONDAY: PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 9.

MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 2 BELOW.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND 16. LOWS AROUND 9.

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.