Quagmire Christmas on the way
We're now under a Flood Watch as a major rainmaker take aim for late Friday and Saturday. The bulletin from the National Weather Service in Paducah states:
* 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
* GROUND CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED FROM RECENT SNOW MELT AND PAST PRECIPITATION EVENTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS. ROADS THAT TYPICALLY FLOOD...WILL DO SO DURING THIS EVENT. THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON LARGER RIVERS AND THEIR LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
The computer models are cranking out some wild colors on the rainfall projection map, with Southeast Missouri remaining in the axis of heaviest precipitation (4+ inches).
Severe thunderstorms are also a possibility. Today's Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS Paducah advises:
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. LOCAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SHORT LIVED TORNADO OR TWO APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND BASED ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
We're right on the edge of the Slight Risk zone for Saturday as drawn by the Storm Prediction Center.
Early predictions for a big snow around St. Louis have been replaced by predictions of a not-quite-so-big snowfall around Kansas City. The computer models are painting 3-6 inch totals along a corridor from K.C. to Milwaukee (not counting any sleet or freezing rain).
Northwest Missouri is likely to see a White Christmas as shown by the GFS computer model:
It's increasingly unlikely we'll have any snow for Christmas (except maybe for rapidly shrinking snow piles around large parking lots). Instead, we're likely to have lots of mud.
We do, however, have a shot at a "White Boxing Day" as a weak system could bring light snow on December 26th.
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