Winter Storm Warning issued; F-word index drops to 4

Cape Girardeau tied the record high of 68°F today, but that's just Mother Nature messing with us. It's going to get ridiculously cold in short order.

As expected, our Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The official advisory states, "5 TO 7 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME VERY MINOR ICING POSSIBLE BENEATH IT."

Judging by the counties that have warnings, it's clear that we're right in the thick of things:

It does appear that our winter storm is poised to bring mostly sleet and snow instead of freezing rain, although the F-word does appear a total of 4 times in the forecast (twice for the upcoming storm and another two times for the weekend system).

TONIGHT: CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY: CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SLEET ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT: SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

FRIDAY: SNOW. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 10. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 20.

SUNDAY: SNOW AND SLEET LIKELY POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

MONDAY: PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 8.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. LOWS AROUND 5.

The temperatures for early next week look ugly, and could actually drop below zero Tuesday night if we get a deep enough snowpack.

This is the first time that the phrase "HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS" has appeared in the forecast for this storm. Some of the computer models are projecting more snowfall than the official forecast.

First, the GFS model puts us in the red zone for 12+ inches (this includes the weekend system):

The NAM model is even more bullish, cranking out 16+ inches.

However, the NAM does tend to exaggerate -- I sometimes think of it as the Not Accurate Model.

Nevertheless, this could be quite an epic storm to open the season. Knock on fake wood, the really nasty freezing rain will miss us and we'll just get beautiful snow.

With that in mind, it's time to fire up the Dartboard Forecast Model: