Winter Storm Watch issued; F-word level now stands at 6

The National Weather Service isn't procrastinating about our upcoming storm: they've already issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire region. Their advisory states:

* TIMING: FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SLEET AND SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT: SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE...SLEET AND SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS MOST PREVALENT.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD GREATLY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS. THIS WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF WINTER STORM CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

The latest forecast for Cape Girardeau includes the F-word (freezing rain) no less than six times. This might be a new record for here:

THURSDAY: CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT: FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

FRIDAY: SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 13.

SATURDAY: PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. LOWS AROUND 19.

SUNDAY: FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

MONDAY: PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

So how much are we going to get? Nobody knows for sure.

In this morning's discussion, the forecasters at the NWS in Paducah admitted, "THIS IS ONE OF THE TOUGHEST WINTER WEATHER FORECASTS WE'VE HAD TO DEAL WITH IN SOME TIME."

We're likely to see a little bit of everything Thursday afternoon into Friday (liquid rain, changing to freezing rain, switching to sleet, and ending as snow). Plenty of moisture will be available:

If it all fell as liquid rain, we'd have over an inch. If it all fell as snow, we could have over 10 inches. That's unlikely though: we'll probably see a delightful holiday sampler featuring all of the above. Right now the computer models are focusing on sleet for Cape Girardeau -- which would be better than freezing rain -- but that could easily change.

To make things more interesting, a second system over the weekend is poised to bring another sampler collection of wintry whatever. A minor system on Monday could drop some bonus flurries, too.

With the approaching "Sleetoclysm" and/or "Icepocalyspe" and/or "Snowmageddon", the BREAD Index is rapidly climbing.

Here are the possible levels:

The forecast is still up in the air -- and it's always possible we will get squat -- but this is looking more and more like a BREADCON 4 type of storm.