Severe storms and heavy rain in the forecast

Spring is the peak for severe weather in this part of the country, but fall can also bring nasty storms as we transition from hot to cold air masses. Indeed, we have quite a transition coming: the sultry 80-degree weather for today and Saturday will be replaced by 60s on Sunday.

As a strong cold front arrives tomorrow, we're likely to see a round of thunderstorms capable of bringing tornadoes, strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain. We're under a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms tomorrow:

While the heaviest rain is likely to remain just to our east, Southeast Missouri could easily see 1+ inch totals:

The latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from the National Weather Service in Paducah states:

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF THE QUAD STATE REGION...WEST OF A MURRAY TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY LINE FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 11 AM CDT TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

AT THIS TIME...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST HAZARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND INTO THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY. SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY PERIODICALLY BOW OUT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL...BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED HAIL IS A SECONDARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.

INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH.

BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO AND WABASH RIVERS INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY.