Heavy rain on the way, but will Cape get much?

This morning brought a familiar sight: a huge blob of rain on the radar moving east toward Cape Girardeau and then suddenly dissipating. The Cape airport only measured 0.07 inches this morning. The radar estimate for the last two days shows lots of color to our west, peaking at over 6 inches for Reynolds County.

Columnist Joe Sullivan commented recently that something "spooky" is keeping the heavy rain away from Cape. He suggested aliens are the culprit. I'm sure that one guy on the History Channel would agree.

Regardless of the source, this protective bubble was a real nuisance during last year's drought, but it has paid off this year. We avoided today's deluge which caused considerable problems elsewhere in Missouri, especially around Waynesville.

However, the bubble will be put to the test this week when copious rain is expected tonight, tomorrow, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and, uhhh, Tuesday (although Monday "only" has a 20% chance).

The current 7-day rainfall projection puts us in the bullseye for 3+ inches total.

As a result, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch, stating:

THE COMBINATION OF THE WIDE OPEN FLOW FROM THE GULF IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A MONSOONAL FLOW FROM THE WEST ALOFT HAVE RESULTED IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH NO TROPICAL SYSTEM INVOLVED THIS IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...HOWEVER WEST OF THE RIVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS. THEREFORE... THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY BUT RETURN THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE WATCH BEING EXTENDED OR REISSUED LATER.

This bulletin does hint that Cape could avoid the worst, since we dodged the earlier rains and the next round might focus on Illinois instead.

On the other hand, the afternoon forecast discussion does includes this ominous note: "RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR WILL NOT ONLY BE POSSIBLE BUT COMMON."

Looking ahead, the long-range projections show that the Midwest will likely remain locked in our un-August-like cool and wet pattern. The next 8-14 days are likely to bring below-average temperatures...

...and above-average rainfall.

Oh joy!