[SeMissourian.com] Fair ~ 54°F  
River stage: 30.01 ft. Rising
Monday, Sep. 15, 2014

Those pesky computer models

Posted Wednesday, December 26, 2012, at 9:26 AM

Winter Storm "Rudolph" has brought a White Boxing Day, but the snowfall totals haven't quite lived up to expectations for many areas in Southeast Missouri.

Throughout 2012, the computer models have tended to overestimate precipitation, often by a large margin. That trend has continued with this storm. The biggest winner in the Snow Sweepstakes for Missouri appears to be Dudley in Stoddard County, reporting 12 inches.

Reports from Illinois have been more impressive, with numerous 10-12 inch observations and even 18 inches measured up in Edwards County.

Looking at the radar animation, it appears that pockets of dry air were sucked into the system as it moved over Southeast Missouri, cutting down on snowfall rates. Slightly warmer temperatures may also have cut down on the accumulations.

It appears that our snow will be slow to melt, with temperatures never getting above the mid-30s for next several days. We do have a small chance of additional light snow Friday night.

Meanwhile, the Mississippi River is starting to drop again. The current forecast shows the river stage losing two feet by the end of the year at Cape.

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