Hurricane Tropical Storm Isaac contines to take its sweet time making landfall in Louisiana. The storm is expected to eventually move north into Arkansas and then Missouri.
Based on our bad luck at getting rain this year, it should come as no surprise that the computer models project that the storm will carefully dance right around us, delivering the heaviest rains to areas to the southwest, west, north, and northeast. Nevertheless, Southeast Missouri is still in line to potentially receive 3+ inches:
Higher amounts, topping 8 inches, are currently projected for a narrow band through St. Louis. This should replenish the exceptionally low Mississippi River levels, but even 8 inches won't be enough to erase the huge rainfall deficits for most of Missouri.
The rain should arrive Friday, especially later in the day. Here's the forecast for Cape Girardeau:
THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
SATURDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
SUNDAY: PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
LABOR DAY: PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
The remnants of Issac could also bring strong winds and isolated severe thunderstorms. Here's an excerpt from today's Hazardous Weather Statement from the Paducah forecast office:
THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL RATES MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE DRAINAGE PROBLEMS IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL POSE A LIGHTNING HAZARD...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Based on the forecast, I've put together this Wild Guesstimate Not Based On Anything Scientific Dartboard Forecast for the remnants of Issac: