[SeMissourian.com] Fair ~ 68°F  
River stage: 18.39 ft. Rising
Monday, May 4, 2015

Welcome to the Cone of Uncertainty

Posted Monday, August 27, 2012, at 1:27 PM

Sometimes the best drought-buster is a nice quality tropical storm that moves up from the Gulf of Mexico and dumps a bunch of rain.

It's unclear if Tropical Storm Issac will fit the bill. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Issac striking the Louisiana coast as a Category 1 hurricane and then moving slowly up through Arkansas.

A few days ago, the official forecast put Issac well to our east. Since then, the computer models have been steadily trending to the west. Right now Cape Girardeau is squarely within the forecast cone, but if the westward trend continues, the storm could easily slide past us to the west.

The current five-day rainfall forecast paints 3+ inches over Southeast Missouri:

This would certainly be welcome, but I'm not convinced that the storm will follow such a favorable track. We might be watching with envy as somebody else gets the heaviest rain.

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