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Winter Weather Advisory
Saturday, Feb. 28, 2015

Flash flooding possible tonight; a big surprise in store next week?

Posted Monday, November 21, 2011, at 10:41 AM

We're under a Flash Flood Watch for this evening and tonight as more heavy rain is expected.

The National Weather Service warns, "DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES MAY EASILY REACH AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. WITH LEAVES CLOGGING MANY DITCHES AND CULVERTS ACROSS THE REGION...PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE.

The computer models are easily projecting over 1.5 inches of rain for Southeast Missouri:

On the other hand, the computer models have been rather unreliable lately. In this morning's forecast discussion, the Paducah forecast office points out the the computer models had trouble with last night's round of storms: "MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THIS COMPLEX VERY WELL AT ALL AND THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE."

Still, it looks like a safe bet that we're going to get wet. It should also remain relatively warm for late November.

For now, anyway. The long-range GFS computer model is hinting at the chance for a quality snowstorm next week capable of dropping 3+ inches of the white stuff. It's a little too early to get excited -- the computer models have been having enough trouble seeing 8 hours into the future, much less 8 days.

Nevertheless, I suspect our first brush with winter, in the form of Winter Storm "Lynyrd Skynyrd", will be here soon enough, one way or the other.


Comments
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Let's have some real snow without that ice! WOOHOO!

-- Posted by silverwalk on Tue, Nov 22, 2011, at 5:59 PM


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