We're facing one more round of rain today before we finally catch a break with dry weather on Thursday and Friday. Unfortunately, the storm system for this weekend, which yesterday looked fairly minor, is now shaping up to drop more heavy rain.
For today, the forecast map shows that we could see another half-inch of rain. On the plus side, severe thunderstorms are unlikely at Cape Girardeau.
I'm getting more worried about this weekend. The projections for Saturday and Sunday suggest we could receive over two inches.
Of course, the computer models could always flip-flop between now and then, although they've been pretty reliable over the last week. The latest forecast discussion from Paducah says:
ANOTHER FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH AND POSSIBLY STALL AGAIN SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS MAY SPELL MORE IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESP SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SURE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT.
On the "Hazards Assessment" map produced by the Climate Prediction Center, we are depicted as being threatened by heavy rain on May 1.
Beyond this weekend, the medium-range outlooks continue to show us within a region of above-average rainfall. In particular, the 6-10 day outlook (May 2-6) paints a bullseye right over us.
The weather station at the Cape Girardeau Airport measured another 1.93 inches of rain yesterday, bringing our total to 14.51 inches since the monsoon began on Friday.