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Here comes Round 8 (or Round 9? I've lost count)

Posted Monday, April 25, 2011, at 4:00 PM

The rain just keeps coming. In the last week, most of Southeast Missouri has seen at least 5 inches, with Cape Girardeau picking up over 8 inches. This map shows the estimated rainfall for the last 7 days:

The Gulf of Mexico is still pumping vast quantities of water this way, putting us in line for another several inches. This map shows the projected rainfall for the next 5 days:

In the latest Flood Watch, the National Weather Service warns:

MORE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS ON THE WAY. TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL HIT...ONE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND THEN ANOTHER THAT WILL HIT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 2 TO 3 INCHES COULD FALL WITH EACH ROUND OF STORMS...TOTALING FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES ON A LOW END...TO AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 INCHES ON THE HIGH END...BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THIS TOTAL RAINFALL COMBINED FROM LAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY THIS COMING WEDNESDAY COULD YIELD NUMBERS FROM 10 TO 15 INCHES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OF RIVERS... STREAMS... CREEKS... AND MANY AREA ROADWAYS.

The Weather Service doesn't use the word "catastropic" very often, so this is serious business. Reports coming from the Poplar Bluff area are particularly dire. Here's the latest Flash Flood Warning for Butler County:

AT 130 PM CDT...THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF A LEVEE ON THE BLACK RIVER CONTINUES TO THREATEN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THE CITY OF POPLAR BLUFF...SPECIFICALLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. A LEVEE ON COUNTY ROAD 607 NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH COUNTY ROAD 605 IS IN DANGER OF IMMINENT FAILURE. THE LEVEE IS STILL WEAKENING AND MAY FAIL AT ANY TIME.

ONCE THE LEVEE FAILURE OCCURS...BUTLER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS INDICATED THAT THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF POPLAR BLUFF WILL BE INUNDATED BY WATER. GENERALLY...THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF POPLAR BLUFF FROM WW HIGHWAY...ALSO CALLED STATE HIGHWAY 142...OR DITCH ROAD...EAST TO COUNTY ROAD 605.

The Black River could reach an all-time record high of 22 feet, breaking the old record of 21.7 ft. (flood stage is 16 ft.):

Meanwhile, the Ohio River is also climbing toward a record stage. Cairo, Illinois, could easily set a new record as the river is expected to crest at 60 ft. (the record is 59.5 ft.):

Of course the Mississippi River is also running high, with the river at Cape Girardeau expected to reach 44.5 ft., coming within 4 feet of the 1993 record:

If that wasn't enough, we are under a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for today and tomorrow. Tornado Watches are already starting to pop up to our southwest as yet another blob of storms moves this way. It appears that the worst storms will remain just to our south, but we could still see high winds and large hail.

Name that storm

In light of the historic flooding conditions, it's time to coin an appropriate name for the ongoing weather crisis. Here are some ideas:

  • Floodageddon
  • Waterclysm
  • Rainastrophe
  • Downpouricane
  • Stormomatic

Do you have any better suggestions? Let us know so that we can pick a moniker and crank up the hype machine!

Comments

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  • Already got the 12-inch total to-date. But I can handle the rain---I'm 412-ft. above sea-level, have a USGS-marker in my front-yard to prove it!---however, you can have the tornados, hail, & wind. I'd like to get some sleep some time within the next week or so!

    All we need now is an earthquake or two. I've got sinkholes that are just daring to swallow me up in my "lower-forty", which is more like 10-wooded, instead!☺

    I wish they'd stop "cracking" for gas, or whatever it is they're doing in Arkansas---it's givin' the rest of the fault a bad-name....!

    -- Posted by donknome-2 on Mon, Apr 25, 2011, at 5:13 PM

  • What another 100 year flood 18 years later?????????

    -- Posted by rockman54 on Tue, Apr 26, 2011, at 11:40 AM

  • Well, they are called 100yr floods, but it doesn't mean they can't occur more often. It's called a 100yr flood because it has a 1 in 100 (1%) chance of occuring. They can happen in back-to-back years and still be 100yr floods. Just depends on the amount of rainfall. A 20yr flood has a 5% chance of occurring, so the 100yr flood would be more devastating and a 500yr flood even more so with only a 0.2% chance of happening. Kind of misleading.

    -- Posted by truetiger98 on Tue, Apr 26, 2011, at 12:01 PM

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