[SeMissourian.com] Fair ~ 92°F  
Heat Advisory
Friday, Aug. 22, 2014

I have a bad feeling about next week

Posted Friday, January 28, 2011, at 10:15 AM

By January standards, the weather this weekend looks gorgeous, with sunshine and highs possibly reaching the 50s. This means, of course, that we're going to pay dearly for the nice weather.

You may remember that the weather was absolutely perfect during the weekend prior to the 2008 ice storm (the first one). We went from warm sunshine to "thundersleet" within 24 hours.

The computer models are projecting a major winter storm starting Monday for somewhere in the Midwest. Right now Missouri appears to be in the bullseye, and Southeast Missouri appears to be right in the middle of the "red zone" featuring freezing rain, sleet, and various other frozen-ish types of precipitation.

If it comes together, Winter Storm "Hendrix" will have plenty of Gulf moisture available, unlike the weak clipper systems that we've seen so far. As the Paducah NWS office explains in this morning's forecast discussion, "The Gulf of Mexico will be wide open for business."

What isn't clear is how cold it will be. If the system draws in more warm air from the south, we could see mostly Plain Old Uneventful Rain. If it we get more Arctic air from the north, we could see mostly snow. Right now, however, the forecasters seem to be leaning more toward a wintry mix.

Here's a simulation of the weather on Tuesday night from the GFS computer model, as seen on coolwx.com. It puts Cape in the freezing rain category (orange) with heavy snow (blue) and sleet (red) just to the north, and liquid rain (green) to the south:

The Paducah NWS forecast office summarizes the situation like this:

REGARDLESS OF HOW IT COMES TOGETHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY INTERESTING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF US...AND A DECENT SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN/ICING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN OUR VICINITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MODEL EVOLUTION CLOSELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

This could be a total non-event, or it could be repeat of the '08 or '09 ice storms. It could even resemble the Blizzard of '79 if we get all snow. It's too early to make any dartboard projections, but it's never too early to start ransacking stores for bread, milk, and beer.


Comments
Showing comments in chronological order
[Show most recent comments first]

(Fingers in ears)LALALALALALALAAAAA---I can't HEAR you, I can't SEE this map, I don't wanna even SMELL the word ICE!!!☺

Yeah, well, James---and that Hollerbach-fella, too!---just listen here: I'm gonna buy MY bread-an'-milk TODAY!!!

But---it's ONLY because I've just got paid, you realize....!!!☺

-- Posted by donknome-2 on Fri, Jan 28, 2011, at 10:56 AM

"...s'cuse me, while I 'KISS' the sky-y-y!!!" LOL!☺

-- Posted by donknome-2 on Fri, Jan 28, 2011, at 5:00 PM

Well, it IS January. ANYTHING can happen.

-- Posted by Bikerguy on Fri, Jan 28, 2011, at 5:01 PM

True.

And, it is almost February, when most anything DOES happen....!☺

-- Posted by donknome-2 on Fri, Jan 28, 2011, at 5:09 PM

I like to believe that the weather taking place this weekend will be staying around until spring.... Leave me in my bubble please!!

-- Posted by Hot Dog on Fri, Jan 28, 2011, at 10:03 PM

AND it's Missouri...where everything happens...and sometimes all in one day!

-- Posted by Catbert on Sat, Jan 29, 2011, at 10:25 AM

The latest computer models are suggesting that Cape might just barely miss the really nasty stuff, although we could still see more than enough freezing rain and snow.

-- Posted by James Baughn on Sat, Jan 29, 2011, at 6:31 PM

But, JAMES---I don't live in Cape! I live in the "suburban-sticks", about five-"hairs" north of Starlight!

An' if I'm not mistaken---neither do YOU!

This might be a great-time to "burn" a few, umm, vacation-days, per se???

I've got MY generator on "ready-to-run" status---how's about YOU??? LOL!!!....☺!

-- Posted by donknome-2 on Sun, Jan 30, 2011, at 11:23 AM

Cape County is now under a Winter Storm Watch, but the computer models continue to shift the storm's track slightly more to the north, giving us mostly liquid rain (we can hope).

St. Louis, on the other hand, is about to get pounded. The NWS forecasters keeping calling this a "potentially historic winter storm" and are now warning of "blowing snow and widespread power outages" thanks to high winds that are expected to arrive following the storm.

-- Posted by James Baughn on Sun, Jan 30, 2011, at 5:05 PM

Glad I got the Harley out this weekend...

-- Posted by ol'homeboy on Mon, Jan 31, 2011, at 2:28 AM


Respond to this blog

Posting a comment requires free registration. If you already have an account, enter your username and password below. Otherwise, click here to register.

Username:

Password:  (Forgot your password?)

Your comments:
Please be respectful of others and try to stay on topic.


In this blog, weather junkies on the Southeast Missourian staff talk about (what else?) the weather. Give us your observations, folk wisdom and Farmers Almanac tales -- it's a weather free for all.
Sign up for the Weather or Not mailing list to receive blog updates by email:
Email address:
Hot topics
Hot weather for a change
(1 ~ 6:39 PM, Aug 17)

Hello, Polar Vortex
(0 ~ 5:51 PM, Jul 11)

Two chances for severe storms
(0 ~ 9:46 AM, Jul 7)

Mother Nature puts on a show
(0 ~ 8:53 PM, Jun 20)

Tornado Watch for today, then heavy rain in the coming days
(0 ~ 3:35 PM, Jun 4)