Back to normal

I was getting worried there. After the National Weather Service accurately predicted the three inch snowfall from Winter Storm "Fleetwood Mac", I wondered if we would even need a Dartboard Forecast anymore. How could we possibly compete with that kind of accuracy?

But now we're back to reality. On Saturday, the weather service issued an advisory calling for 1-3 inches on Sunday. By the time Sunday morning rolled around, the storm had weakened and the advisory called off before it even went into effect. We ended up getting a dusting at most, which quickly melted thanks to a surprise increase in temperatures.

Old Man Winter is still unpredictable, and the Weather or Not Wild Guess Dartboard Forecast System^tm is still a useful tool.

The forecast

The rest of this week looks pretty boring. As usual, the next system will miss us completely, bringing snow to our south. Nashville, Tennessee, which has already seen 9.3 inches so far this season, could see another 1-3 inches. (Meanwhile, Cape Girardeau has only had 4.5 inches by my reckoning, and that includes some rounding up.)

After a brief period of slightly warmer weather, it appears that temperatures will drop again this weekend, with lows back in the teens. The computer models are hinting at another winter storm next week, but it doesn't look too impressive at this point.

The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts put Missouri in a large blob of below-average temperatures and below-average precipitation. In other words, more of the same. For the year, we've only had 0.28 inches of precipitation (melted), far below the average of 2.5 inches.