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In this blog, weather junkies on the Southeast Missourian staff talk about (what else?) the weather. Give us your observations, folk wisdom and Farmers Almanac tales -- it's a weather free for all.
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Maybe a dusting

Posted Friday, December 10, 2010, at 3:12 PM

Winter Storm "AC/DC" is shaping up to be a dud if you like snow.

The computer models now predict the storm will follow an unfavorable northern track through the Great Lakes. We should see lots of rain Saturday, followed by a massive plunge in temperatures as the cold front arrives overnight.

We might see snow showers in the "wraparound" portion of the storm Sunday morning, but it probably won't amount to much. The GFS computer model projects we could see an inch of accumulation or less (with emphasis on the "less"). Meanwhile, the NAM model confines all of the snow accumulation well to the north, even bypassing St. Louis.

The experimental snowfall projection from the National Weather Service paints us at the tail end with a 10-20% chance of receiving at least an inch of accumulation.

This is roughly the same as the projection for the Thanksgiving Day storm. That system delivered about 3 minutes of sleet, but no snow.

If we escape without any snow on the ground, temperatures next week won't be quite as ridiculously cold, but still cold enough. The low Sunday night could dip to 10°F.

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  • What about the updated forecast showing a 60% scance of snow on Sunday any insights?

    -- Posted by mynameismud on Sat, Dec 11, 2010, at 3:37 PM

  • The storm is taking a more southerly track, so the odds that we will see snow falling from the sky has gone up. But the computer models still only show Cape getting minor accumulations, if that. I'd say the odds right now are: 40% we get nothing, 35% we get a dusting or a little more, 20% we get an inch, 5% we get more than an inch.

    Southern Illinois and St. Louis have a much better chance of seeing a couple inches or more, and they're under a Winter Weather Advisory.

    -- Posted by James Baughn on Sat, Dec 11, 2010, at 10:29 PM

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