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In this blog, weather junkies on the Southeast Missourian staff talk about (what else?) the weather. Give us your observations, folk wisdom and Farmers Almanac tales -- it's a weather free for all.
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White Christmas forecast: It's time to break out the dartboard

Posted Wednesday, December 16, 2009, at 10:31 AM

Just my luck. As soon as I posted yesterday's blog about a chance of accumulating snow this weekend, the official forecast was updated to a dreaded rain-changing-to-snow forecast, and only a 20% chance of that to boot.

These rain-changing-to-snow predictions rarely pan out. The notable exception was the Blizzard of '79, but that's the exception that proves the rule.

The long-range forecast does call for cold weather next week, with high temperatures in the 30s most days. Moisture will be limited, but a series of weak systems could possibly, perhaps, maybe, hopefully bring snow showers in the days leading up to Christmas.

So there's a reasonable chance that we could have a White Christmas this year, but I'm not holding my breath.

Historically, Cape Girardeau has an 18% probability of a White Christmas each year, defined as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 6 AM.

I would argue that the definition should be expanded to include any snow on the ground or in the air at any point during the day. Even with the expanded definition, though, the odds of a White Christmas aren't very favorable around here.

It always seems St. Louis and Springfield get more snowstorms than we do, but their odds of a White Christmas (using the official definition) are only slightly better: 23% chance for them versus 18% for us. If you really want to see a White Christmas, then travel to International Falls, Minnesota, Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, or Fairbanks, Alaska, all of which have a 100% probability. I like those odds!

Here is the official probability map fron the National Climatic Data Center:

It's a little early to make predictions about our prospects for a White Christmas, but it's never too early to make wild uneducated guesses using the Dartboard Forecast Model. Here's the current scenario, which will undoubtedly change about 25 times between now and Dec. 25:

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  • Yeah, it's dart-board time, indeed!

    For variety: Let's throw TWO-darts at a time, backward and blindfolded, of course...!

    -- Posted by donknome-2 on Wed, Dec 16, 2009, at 11:31 AM

  • I vote for SQUAT!!

    -- Posted by pickles on Wed, Dec 16, 2009, at 5:33 PM

  • The latest forecast is hinting at a major storm arriving next Wednesday and Thursday, capable of bringing heavy snow just in time for Christmas. Some of the computer models even track the low-pressure system to our south through Tennessee, the ideal setup for a big snow.

    At this point it's probably safe to assume that we won't get anything at all.

    -- Posted by James Baughn on Thu, Dec 17, 2009, at 3:27 PM

  • According to the latest NOAA-forecasts, it appears they're using the same type of dartboard you are!(Should've copyrighted it---you'd be an instant millionare, now!)

    The official NOAA-forecasts from both St. Louis & Paducah offices:(para-quotes are mine---DUH, really?)

    Paducah---"Eh, maybe a dusting. No accumulation."

    St. Louis:---"Some minor accumulation, 1 to 2 inches possible, less-likely in the southeastern part of Missouri."

    And here's my favorite part---"The Disclaimer", by both offices:

    "Amounts will depend extensively on the actual track of the still-developing system, which is still being evaluated at this time, and is subject to change with each updated forcast."

    How many darts ya' got there, James?

    -- Posted by donknome-2 on Fri, Dec 18, 2009, at 10:17 AM

  • Don't forget about the Springfield, MO, forecast office. They've got a nice disclaimer this morning regarding the potential Christmas Eve storm:

    "THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH GREATER DETAIL AS MODEL RUNS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES."

    But even if the computer models do start to agree on the forecast, it doesn't matter -- they'll just flip-flop to something completely different the next day. So confidence is always low with any kind of snowstorm. The only time the forecasters can confidently make a forecast is when it's already started to snow, in which case they will issue a duh-obvious "100% chance of snow today" forecast.

    -- Posted by James Baughn on Fri, Dec 18, 2009, at 10:33 AM

  • James: You should setup a winter storm forecast contest. Have people send in their own forecasts and see how they do compared to the weather service.

    -- Posted by SEMissouri70 on Fri, Dec 18, 2009, at 10:44 AM

  • Yeah, I got tired of typing before I got to the Springfield-"fore-guess"! You got my point EXACTLY!

    Yeah, you COULD set-up a contest, like SEMissouri70 is thinking of.

    And, the prize?

    A brand-new, state-of-the-art, Officially-Licensed NOAA Weather Forecast Radio!!!

    With ALL purchasing & shipping charges paid for by the WINNER, of course, in keeping with government-standards.

    All YOU need to do is notify the "winner" that they have "won".....!

    -- Posted by donknome-2 on Sat, Dec 19, 2009, at 10:17 AM

  • And BTW, at 6:37 a.m. Saturday, while I was doing my early-morning home security sweep---which conveniently terminates at the "throne-room"---I noticed a MODERATE "dusting" of snow, in the valleys between my frozen molehills.

    SO---LET THE "GAMES" BEGIN...!!!

    -- Posted by donknome-2 on Sat, Dec 19, 2009, at 10:27 AM

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