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In this blog, weather junkies on the Southeast Missourian staff talk about (what else?) the weather. Give us your observations, folk wisdom and Farmers Almanac tales -- it's a weather free for all.
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Beware of "rain changing to snow" forecasts

Posted Friday, December 5, 2008, at 4:09 PM

So far this season, we've seen two systems that threatened to bring a chance of snow or sleet, but fizzled. The weekend after Thanksgiving, the forecast for Cape Girardeau called for a good chance of rain followed by a switch to snow, with around an inch of accumulation expected. The rain came, but not the snow. Since then, another cold front has delivered rain and cold air, but no snow.

Based on personal experience, these "rain changing to snow" forecasts are typically a bust. The moisture always seems to vanish just before the temperature drops below freezing.

Another weather system next week is expected to bring more rain and cold air. Snow? The odds don't look too good. The forecasters at the National Weather Service office in Paducah had this to say during this afternoon's forecast discussion:

AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT FASTER THAN THE COLD AIR INTRUSION. THEREFORE...THE SWITCH FROM A RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW FORECAST IS FAIRLY RAPID TUESDAY EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKES PLACE...LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. FOR NOW...I HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

The Dartboard Forecasting System

I'd like to take this opportunity to present my non-patent-pending Dartboard Forecasting System, loosely based on a science fair project I put together in middle school. In this graphic, produced using the finest in high-tech weather forecasting technology (Photoshop), you can see the typical outcomes for a "rain changing to snow" situation here in Southeast Missouri:

Most of the time (in green), we get squat. Maybe lots of rain, but no snow except for flurries. Sometimes the forecast (in red) actually pans out, and we really do see rain changing to decent snowfall. And in extremely rare cases -- the Blizzard of '79 comes to mind -- Mother Nature quickly skips past the rain phase and goes straight to Major Oh-My-God Blizzard mode.

With the parade of weather systems that are coming through, we're eventually going to see a good snow. But don't hold your breath. And kids: don't skip your homework expecting a snow day every time.

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  • I meant to post on your last blog entry, but I didn't...so I will offer my opinion here:

    As soon as the forecast is made that it may snow, the town goes into a frenzy. I have never seen so many people freak out over a 'chance of snow'. I grew up in Central IL and have spent time in Chicago and Grand Rapids, MI. You wanna talk about snow? I remember waking up and going to work at 5:00 am one morning when I lived in Grand Rapids after it had snowed about 8 or 9 inches overnight. Not only were the roads cleared, but the city was almost done plowing the sidewalks!!!!! It was amazing. And no school was canceled either!!!! I have lived in Cape for 8 yrs now and it still amazes me that my kids get out of school if it snows 2 inches overnight or they let out early if it starts to snow lightly around 10 or 11. Heaven forbid they stay in school any longer than is necessary.

    Just Me was talking about driving in the previous post and I agree 100%. As soon as the flakes fly everybody has to drive 10 miles an hour and everybody is afraid that they won't make it home!!!! I appreciate the cautious attitude, but come on!!!! Quit with the drama already!!!!!

    I think I'm gonna enjoy this blog, so good luck and keep the jokes about the weather forecasts coming.

    -- Posted by cubbytodd on Sat, Dec 6, 2008, at 12:04 AM

  • Super 'weather chart!' Sort of reminds me of working in the Atmo-Sci Department at a University. ~smiling~

    -- Posted by gurusmom on Sat, Dec 6, 2008, at 1:43 PM

  • I was in Dallas for training a few Decembers ago when we were supposed to get - and did get- freezing rain and sleet. The instructors said class would go on because they stayed overnight in a hotel across from the classroom.

    When I expressed surprise that the school would go to all that trouble, one of them said, "You have to understand. Someone can toss an ice cube out the window in the middle of July in Dallas and it'll back up traffic for four hours."

    I DO have to admit that Cape seems to get a lot more snow now than they did when I was a kid, even if that was slightly after the end of the Ice Age.

    -- Posted by Ken1 on Sun, Dec 7, 2008, at 10:26 PM

  • Maybe I was a kid way too long ago to remember, but it seems to me we got MUCH more snow back then. I think about buying a snowblower every winter as I watch my neighbor using his, but I come to my senses as realize I'd probably use it only once or twice a year. If this is global warming.............I like it.

    -- Posted by cardsfan53 on Mon, Dec 8, 2008, at 12:16 PM

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