Is Dave Duncan a Hall of Fame coach? How about Leo Mazzone?

It's a pretty safe bet that Cardinals manager Tony La Russa (third all-time in wins, two World Series championships, five pennants) will end up in the Hall of Fame soon after he retires, with Bobby Cox and Joe Torre also likely to be so honored for their managerial duties.

But what about Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan?

The 62-year-old again is working his magic with a veteran pitcher, in this case Kyle Lohse, while working with a pitching staff that doesn't have many established standouts.

A sub-.500 pitcher for his career, Lohse last year was 9-12 with an ERA over 4.50. He hit the All-Star break with an 11-2 record and 3.39 ERA (improved to 12-2, 3.35 on Thursday night), which would be a career best for him by more than three-quarters of a run.

Duncan also has been credited for helping Kent Bottenfield post the 18-7, 3.97 ERA in 1999 before Bottenfield departed for the Angels.

Jeff Weaver in 2006 came from the Angels and finished 5-4 (despite a 5.14 ERA) but had a postseason mark of 3-2 with a 2.43 ERA in the march to the World Series.

His pitching staffs have been the best in their league four times — Oakland from 1988 through 1990 and St. Louis in 2005. He has coached four Cy Young winners: LaMarr Hoyt in Chicago in 1983, Bob Welch with the A's in 1990, reliever Dennis Eckersley with the A's in 1992, and Chris Carpenter with the Cardinals in 2005.

His most successful effort may have been guiding Dave Stewart to four 20-win seasons with the A's from 1987 through 1990, including a 22-11, 2.56 ERA in the final season in that stretch.

First, the Hall of Fame does not currently include someone whose primary claim to fame is as an assistant coach rather than a manager.

Second, Duncan has some competition in his own contemporary class from former Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone. During Mazzone's time in Atlanta, the trio of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz won six Cy Youngs, and 10 different pitchers made the All-Star game in a 15-year span. Players like Steve Avery and Denny Neagle had their best days with Mazzone.

The author of The Baseball Economist, J.C. Bradbury, charted the effect Mazzone was having on pitchers. Says Wikipedia: "Bradbury found that Mazzone lowered the ERA of pitchers by an average of .64 points, and that after leaving Mazzone, pitchers' ERA increased by an average of .78 points. Bradbury believes that such an impact is deserving of Hall of Fame consideration."

Bradbury writes on his blog:

After the 2004 season, Jaret Wright had turned his amazing season with the Braves into a fat free agent contract with the New York Yankees. Some Braves fans were disappointed, but others said not to worry, "Leo Mazzone can fix anybody." "Pfft!" I scoffed. "There's no way the pitching coach could be responsible for resurrecting these careers. It's just a matter of perception. We remember guys like Jaret Wright, John Burkett, and Mike Remlinger, but forget about the guys like Albie Lopez, Odalis Perez, and Jason Marquis." So, I decided to do something about it. I gathered up a list of every pitcher who'd pitched for Mazzone and for another pitching coach and compared their performances with and without Mazzone. I controlled for factors such as league, age, park differences in preventing runs, etc. I was shocked: Leo Mazzone was shaving about half-a-run of his pitchers' ERAs. That's a huge effect. I didn't think much of it and posted the results of the study on my blog, Sabernomics. Blogs are a funny thing, because you don't understand who is reading what you've written. It turns out a lot of people were reading it, and a follow up study I did for The Baseball Analysts. The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, ESPN.com, and even Fox Saturday Baseball were talking about my results.

An ESPN.com article on Mazzone listed him as the best assistant coach of all-time in any sport. The only other baseball guys on the list were the late Charley Lau, whose hitting approach helped the Royals in the late 1970s; and Missouri native Mel Stottlemyre, pitching coach for the Mets in 1986 and the Yankees dynasty from 1996 through 2005.

So, should Duncan get in the Hall of Fame? Is he a more worthy candidate than Mazzone?

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